Tucson, Arizona 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

713
FXUS65 KTWC 300928
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
228 AM MST Sun Mar 30 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry weather with near to slightly above normal temperatures
through Tuesday. A series of dry weather systems will bring breezy
west to southwest winds today and again Tuesday, with localized
critical fire weather conditions and blowing dust south and east
of Tucson. A weather system will bring cooler temperatures midweek
onward and low precipitation chances late in the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
The fairly progressive weather pattern remains in tact.
Yesterday`s shortwave that brought breezy winds has moved well to
our east, and the next dry weather system is moving west-to-east
across the Great Basin as of this writing. This system will mainly
stay to our north today, with variable high cloudiness passing
through. The main highlight with this system will be an increase
in wind once again, with breeziest conditions generally south and
east of Tucson from midday through early evening. Near critical
fire weather conditions will be possible in these locations.

Under this progressive pattern with broad westerly flow aloft,
high temperatures will generally be within a few degrees of
normal. Generally in the upper 70s to lower 80s across the
valleys.

We start to see more meaningful pattern changes as a strong
weather system and potent jet stream push inland across the West
Coast on Monday. By Tuesday, this upper trough carves its way
southward, with the aforementioned jet stream now moving into our
region. The combination of a potent shortwave with strong upper
level support should drive surface winds to be stronger than we`ve
seen with recent events. We are currently looking at west to
southwest winds in the 20-30 mph range with gusts up to 45 mph,
with stronger gusts over higher terrain. This will again bring the
potential for critical fire weather conditions along with blowing
dust.

This longwave trough pattern will continue to amplify and deepen
through the course of the week. The exact evolution of this
pattern remains highly uncertain. Per WPC`s cluster analysis, much
of the variance seen in medium-range models is owed to uncertainty
in the depth of this trough. At the very least, confidence is high
that temperatures will drop to well below normal levels Wednesday and
stay there into next weekend. We are carrying 20-30 percent
chances of precipitation Friday, and lower chances into the
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 31/00Z.
SCT to occasionally BKN 12-20k ft AGL through the forecast
period. Light surface winds increase and become westerly 10-20 kts
with gusts 25-30 kts (highest gusts near KDUG) aft 30/18Z.
Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Warm afternoon temperatures across Southeast Arizona through
Tuesday, generally around to slightly warmer than normal.
Afternoon relative humidity values in the single digits to lower
teens. A dry weather system moving through the area will result
in breezy conditions this afternoon. This will lead to elevated
fire weather conditions mainly southeast of Tucson. Brief and
localized critical weather conditions will be possible Sunday
across southern Fire Weather Zone 152. Another bout of gusty winds
is expected Tuesday when elevated to areas of critical fire
weather conditions (especially east of Tucson) are possible.
Thereafter, breezy conditions each day with a slight chance of
light showers late in the upcoming week.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Public...Dang
Aviation...Dang
Fire Weather....Dang

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