Tucson, Arizona 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

356
FXUS65 KTWC 110817
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
116 AM MST Wed Jun 11 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Dry and hot conditions across southeastern Arizona
through the coming week as high temperatures remain several degrees
above normal. Temperatures peak this Saturday through Monday, with
extreme heat across southeast Arizona and highs 8 to 12 degrees
above normal.

&&

.DISCUSSION...High pressure aloft will dominate the weather across
southeast Arizona through at least early next week. High
temperatures will be 2-5 degrees above normal through Friday, rising
to 8-12 degrees above normal Sunday and Monday as the high becomes
centered nearly overhead. Minor HeatRisk (with small pockets of
Moderate) will continue across southeast Arizona through Friday,
Moderate HeatRisk (with pockets of Major) on Saturday and then Major
HeatRisk Sunday and Monday. NBM probabilities of 110+ degrees this
Saturday in Tucson are at 10 percent, with 60+ percent probabilities
Sunday and 40 percent on Monday. An Extreme Heat Watch has been
issued from Saturday morning through Monday evening for the lower
elevations of southeast Arizona. High temperatures lower several
degrees mid to late next week as system moves across the Great Basin
flattening the upper ridge. However, readings will still be 2-5
degrees above normal next week.

Otherwise, enough mid-level moisture remains in place today across
the White Mountains for a slight chance (10-20 percent) of afternoon
and early evening mainly dry thunderstorms. Gusty outflow winds and
lightning sparked wildfires will be the main threats with any storms
that do develop. Breezy west to northwest winds will continue in the
upper Gila River valley near Safford today and east of Tucson across
portions of Cochise and Graham counties on Thursday. Peak afternoon
and early evening wind speeds of 15-20 mph and gusts to around 30
mph are expected, especially on Thursday. The strongest winds will
be in the upper Gila River valley near Safford, with the possibility
of a few hours of near critical fire weather conditions.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 12/12Z.
SCT clouds AOA 20k ft AGL areawide thru the forecast period. FEW-SCT
clouds at 12k-15k ft AGL from KTUS eastward aft 11/15Z. There will
be a slight chance of -TSRA in the White Mountains NE of KSAD
between 11/18Z and 12/03Z. SFC wind generally less than 12 kts and
variable in direction thru 11/18Z and again aft 12/03Z. WLY/NWLY SFC
wind between 11/18Z and 11/03Z at 8-13 kts west of a KTUS to KOLS
line, with wind speeds of 12-17 kts and gusts to 20-27 kts east of
this line in the vicinity of KDUG, KALK and especially KSAD.
Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Dry conditions are expected across most of southeast
Arizona through early next week, with just a slight chance (10-20
percent) of afternoon/early evening mainly dry thunderstorms in the
White Mountains today. Generally single digit min RH values in the
valleys, with mountain locations in the 10-20 percent range. 20-foot
winds will be 15 mph or less from Tucson westward, with occasional
afternoon/early evening gusts to around 25 mph due to the strong
surface heating. East of Tucson, breezy afternoon/early evening 20-
foot winds are expected across portions of Cochise and Graham
counties through Thursday, with peak wind speeds of 15-20 mph and
gusts to around 30 mph. The strongest winds will be in the upper
Gila River valley near Safford, with the possibility of a few hours
of near critical fire weather conditions.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Extreme Heat Watch from Saturday morning through Monday evening for
AZZ501>509.

&&

$$

Zell

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